Modelling the effect of a nationwide mobility service guarantee on travel behaviour using the strategic model MARS

Abstract

Decarbonising the transport sector needs to include strategies to lower the demand of private car use. The concept of a nationwide mobility service guarantee (MSG) emerged as a solution to combine sustainable and socially inclusive mobility, enabling access without the need for a private car. The impact of introducing such a guarantee on travel behaviour is assessed for Austria as a case study, using the strategic land use and transport interaction (LUTI) model MARS. We simulate five scenarios showing different designs of the MSG, focus on different transport modes and combination with other transport policies. In line with previous studies, we find that new services acting as “pull”-measures are not enough to achieve significant reductions of car use but it is necessary to combine them with “push”- measures, i.e. restrictive measures for cars. The MSG could be a powerful tool for implementing different measures for sustainable transport policies. We conclude that the simulation can help in finding a desirable policy mix but further research needs to be conducted in terms of empirical data for model calibration.