Optimization of the scenario based strategy planning process for the Instrumentation and Test Systems Racing market at AVL List GmbH

Abstract

Besides Marketing, Motorsports is an effective platform for the automotive industry to develop and test new technologies under extremely competitive conditions. Shorter development cycles and highly optimized performance and durability require the right set of tools which eventually find their way into the main automotive development processes. AVL List GmbH is the major supplier of instrumentation and test systems for all elements of the powertrain as well as vehicle components for all premium racing series. In order to be able to support the fast-changing development and testing requirements of the race teams the availability of the right tools is essential. To develop these tools and having the right test systems portfolio, it is vital for to anticipate changes ahead of time. To be able to adapt to the volatile requirements of the racing market a scenario planning approach was introduced in the Racing Business Segment at AVL in 2016. This master thesis provides a detailed overview of the currently implemented scenario planning process and evaluates the quality of the scenarios in terms of the estimated probability and business severity for the timeframe 2017- 2020. The scope of this thesis was also to improve the current shortcomings in the current business forecast suitable for proper midterm planning by the introduction and integration of an additional scenario-based forecasting technique. This paper outlines an approach to combine elements from different scenario planning methods to create a framework tailored to the specific forecasting requirements.