Applying the experience curve concept to investments in biomass combustion plants

Abstract

An important barrier to the deployment of biomass-fired combustion plants is the high initial investment cost. To set up future energy strategies, it is necessary to evaluate when and how this barrier can be overcome. The experience curve is an analysis tool designed to deliver an estimate of the rate at which costs of energy technologies fall with installed capacity. The aim of this work is to estimate whether this methodology can be implemented for biomass plants in a satisfactory way. For this purpose, technical and financial data on biomass-fuelled plants around the world have been gathered from various sources and classified following a number of criteria (technology, outputs, power range, etc.), before applying the experience curve pattern. Convincing results were obtained only for small and very homogeneous data sets ; other sets show bad regression coefficients.<br />Besides the general lack of detailed financial data, the major problem encountered is the hazardous handling of biomass statistics by the national energy agencies. Deeper international collaboration is absolutely necessary to build up a consensus on common criteria and support further development of biomass-fuelled plants.