What are common insights of decarbonisation scenarios derived from different building stock models?

Abstract

Modelling possible future scenarios of buildings’ energy carrier mix and energy consumption levels is crucial for understanding and planning of decarbonisation pathways. Comparing different model results is important to understand models' specific characteristics and not being biased. However, model comparisons are often difficult to perform, if scenario specifications did not take place in a comparable manner. A scenario specification and model run task has been carried out within the scope of the ECEMF project . This task covers seven scenarios representing high and low demand levels and different technology focus. The aforementioned seven scenarios ran by different building stock models, which are Invert/EELab, Invert/Opt, FORECAST, PRIMES-Buildings, and REMIND-Buildings. This study analyzes the differences between seven scenarios and five building stock models. Within the scope of this study, we aim to answer the following questions. What are the possible reasons for the deviations between the different models? What are common insights and robust results across the scenarios?