DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorBertola, Miriam-
dc.contributor.authorViglione, Alberto-
dc.contributor.authorVorogushyn, Sergiy-
dc.contributor.authorLun, David-
dc.contributor.authorMerz, Bruno-
dc.contributor.authorBlöschl, Günter-
dc.date.accessioned2022-01-11T12:12:31Z-
dc.date.available2022-01-11T12:12:31Z-
dc.date.issued2021-03-19-
dc.identifier.citation<div class="csl-bib-body"> <div class="csl-entry">Bertola, M., Viglione, A., Vorogushyn, S., Lun, D., Merz, B., &#38; Blöschl, G. (2021). Do small and large floods have the same drivers of change? A regional attribution analysis in Europe. <i>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences</i>, <i>25</i>(3), 1347–1364. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021</div> </div>-
dc.identifier.issn1027-5606-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12708/19269-
dc.description.abstractRecent studies have shown evidence of increasing and decreasing trends for average floods and flood quantiles across Europe. Studies attributing observed changes in flood peaks to their drivers have mostly focused on the average flood behaviour, without distinguishing small and large floods. This paper proposes a new framework for attributing flood changes to potential drivers, as a function of return period (T), in a regional context. We assume flood peaks to follow a non-stationary regional Gumbel distribution, where the median flood and the 100-year growth factor are used as parameters. They are allowed to vary in time and between catchments as a function of the drivers quantified by covariates. The elasticities of floods with respect to the drivers and the contributions of the drivers to flood changes are estimated by Bayesian inference. The prior distributions of the elasticities of flood quantiles to the drivers are estimated by hydrological reasoning and from the literature. The attribution model is applied to European flood and covariate data and aims at attributing the observed flood trend patterns to specific drivers for different return periods at the regional scale. We analyse flood discharge records from 2370 hydrometric stations in Europe over the period 1960-2010. Extreme precipitation, antecedent soil moisture and snowmelt are the potential drivers of flood change considered in this study. Results show that, in northwestern Europe, extreme precipitation mainly contributes to changes in both the median (q2) and 100-year flood (q100), while the contributions of antecedent soil moisture are of secondary importance. In southern Europe, both antecedent soil moisture and extreme precipitation contribute to flood changes, and their relative importance depends on the return period. Antecedent soil moisture is the main contributor to changes in q2, while the contributions of the two drivers to changes in larger floods (T > 10 years) are comparable. In eastern Europe, snowmelt drives changes in both q2 and q100.en
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Commission-
dc.description.sponsorshipFonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung (FWF)-
dc.language.isoen-
dc.publisherCOPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH-
dc.relation.ispartofHydrology and Earth System Sciences-
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/-
dc.subjectfloodsen
dc.titleDo small and large floods have the same drivers of change? A regional attribution analysis in Europeen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.typeArtikelde
dc.rights.licenseCreative Commons Namensnennung 4.0 Internationalde
dc.rights.licenseCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85102992279-
dc.identifier.urlhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85102992279-
dc.contributor.affiliationGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany-
dc.contributor.affiliationGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany-
dc.description.startpage1347-
dc.description.endpage1364-
dc.relation.grantno676027-
dc.relation.grantno4776-N-
dc.rights.holder© Author(s) 2021-
dc.type.categoryOriginal Research Article-
tuw.container.volume25-
tuw.container.issue3-
tuw.journal.peerreviewedtrue-
tuw.peerreviewedtrue-
tuw.project.titleA Large-Scale Systems Approach to Flood Risk Assessment and Management-
tuw.project.titleLangfristige Variabilität extremer Hochwasserereignisse 2-
dcterms.isPartOf.titleHydrology and Earth System Sciences-
tuw.publication.orgunitE222-02 - Forschungsbereich Ingenieurhydrologie-
tuw.publisher.doi10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021-
dc.identifier.eissn1607-7938-
dc.description.numberOfPages18-
tuw.author.orcid0000-0003-4639-7982-
tuw.author.orcid0000-0002-5992-1440-
dc.rights.identifierCC BY 4.0de
dc.rights.identifierCC BY 4.0en
wb.scitrue-
item.fulltextwith Fulltext-
item.grantfulltextopen-
item.languageiso639-1en-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
item.openaccessfulltextOpen Access-
item.openairetypeArticle-
item.openairetypeArtikel-
crisitem.author.deptTU Wien, Österreich-
crisitem.author.deptGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany-
crisitem.author.deptTU Wien, Österreich-
crisitem.author.deptGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany-
crisitem.author.deptE222 - Institut für Wasserbau und Ingenieurhydrologie-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0003-4639-7982-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-5992-1440-
crisitem.author.parentorgE200 - Fakultät für Bauingenieurwesen-
crisitem.project.funderEuropean Commission-
crisitem.project.funderFonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung (FWF)-
crisitem.project.grantno676027-
crisitem.project.grantno4776-N-
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