<div class="csl-bib-body">
<div class="csl-entry">Suna, D., Resch, G., Schöniger, F. B., Pardo-Garcia, N., Hasengst, F., & Totschnig Gerhard. (2023, February 15). <i>SECURES: Securing Austria’s electricity supply in times of climate change – overview on scenario design and modelling assumptions</i> [Conference Presentation]. IEWT 2023 - Die Zukunft der EnergieMÄRKTE in Europa vor dem Hintergrund neuer geopolitischer Ungleichgewichte, Wien, Austria. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12708/193680</div>
</div>
-
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12708/193680
-
dc.description.abstract
Motivation and Core Objectives
The transition of Austria’s electricity system towards a safe and sustainable future in times of climate
change brings a broad range of challenges and opportunities into the policy debate where timely
decisions on the way forward are of key relevance. To provide targeted support to Austrian policy
makers for Austria´s future years, the project SECURES aims
• to define a suitable set of future trend scenarios for electricity sector and
• to conduct a comprehensive model-based scenario analysis of Austria’s future electricity
sector, targeted to secure a reliable, sustainable and cost-efficient transition of Austria’s
electricity sector in times of climate change.
This work elaborates assumptions made for the related scenario development process and is intended
to be part of the special session on the project SECURES within IEWT 2023.
Methodology
The modelling system covers Austria but also other European countries to represent cross-border
exchange within the electricity sector. The main aspect of scenario design is the combination of
energy transition pathways for 2030 and 2050 with proper climate change scenarios, formed from
climate change simulations in accordance with Representative Concentrated Pathways (RCP). Based
on a literature survey and an in-depth stakeholder consultation process, two distinct energy
transformation scenario pathways have been defined: A Reference (REF) and a Decarbonisation
Needs (DN) scenario. Below we inform on the outcomes of that process, the exact scenario definition
and the further analytical process within the SECURES project.
Results and Conclusions
For REF scenario Austrian and EU-wide existing measures and goals including 2030 emissions
targets are considered as identified in the National Trends scenario of ENTSOe-TYNDP2022 [1]. It
relies on the 100% RES-based electricity system for Austria by 2030 (national balance sheet),
however represents less decarbonization ambition in other sectors and EU countries, and accordingly
expected to match with a strong climate change scenario (RCP 8.5).
On the contrary, the DN-scenario represents a strong decarbonation ambition across the whole EU
based on [2] and is coupled with a moderate climate change scenario (RCP 4.5). Here the measures
are considered to achieve full decarbonization by 2050 that implies a strong sector-coupling and
decarbonization of other sectors such as industry and mobility.
Since the overall assessment focuses on supply security for both scenarios described above a
Security of Supply (SOS) variant is analyzed as well, assuming extreme weather conditions (e.g. cold
and heat waves) in accordance with climate data coupled with conservative assumptions for critical
system bottlenecks. Both scenarios build on the detailed analysis of future demand trends, reflecting
climate change impacts, consider future grid developments based on [1] and incorporate all relevant
flexibility options.
en
dc.description.sponsorship
Kommunalkredit Austria AG
-
dc.language.iso
en
-
dc.subject
Energy system modelling
en
dc.subject
Climate modelling
en
dc.subject
Security of supply
en
dc.title
SECURES: Securing Austria’s electricity supply in times of climate change – overview on scenario design and modelling assumptions
en
dc.type
Presentation
en
dc.type
Vortrag
de
dc.contributor.affiliation
Austrian Institute of Technology
-
dc.contributor.affiliation
Austrian Institute of Technology
-
dc.contributor.affiliation
Austrian Institute of Technology
-
dc.relation.grantno
GZ C061007 „ACRP12 - SECURES - KR19AC0K17532“
-
dc.type.category
Conference Presentation
-
tuw.project.title
Securing Austria's Electricity Supply in times of Climate Change
-
tuw.researchTopic.id
E3
-
tuw.researchTopic.name
Climate Neutral, Renewable and Conventional Energy Supply Systems