<div class="csl-bib-body">
<div class="csl-entry">Schöniger, F. B., Resch, G., Suna, D., Hasengst, F., Pardo-Garcia, N., Totschnig Gerhard, Formayer, H., Philipp Maier, & Leidinger, D. (2023, February 15). <i>Modelling the impact of climate change on electricity generation and demand</i> [Conference Presentation]. IEWT 2023 - Die Zukunft der EnergieMÄRKTE in Europa vor dem Hintergrund neuer geopolitischer Ungleichgewichte, Wien, Austria. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12708/193681</div>
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dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12708/193681
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dc.description.abstract
Motivation
Heat waves and other extreme events, as experienced globally during the summer of 2022, drastically
show the energy system’s vulnerability to climate change’s impact. For an adequate representation of
climate change’s impact on energy systems, increased cooperation between the research fields of
climatology and energy system modelling is required. Several studies have investigated the effect of
climate change on the energy system [1], [2]. In this work, we use current climate modelling to
generate consistent data sets for electricity demand as well as electricity generation components for
all European countries, including hydropower generation, which is often missing in comparable data
sets.
Method
The methodological approach combines climate and energy modelling and is conducted in the course
of the project SECURES. The climate data sets generated are used to derive weather-dependent
electricity generation and demand profiles in hourly resolution. For two RCP pathways (RCP4.5 and
RCP6.5), we derive the weather parameters affecting the electricity system the most and combine
them with two different decarbonisation scenarios of the energy system. Changes in temperature, wind
speed, radiation, and precipitation have impacts on the electricity demand side (e.g. by increased
cooling demand during heat waves) ([3], [4]) as well as on the power generation (e.g. changed hydro
generation) [5]. Energy system data for 2030 and 2050 are combined with the weather years in the 30
years around that year to generate the following hourly profiles:
- E-heating demand (dependent on temperature)
- E-cooling demand (dependent on temperature)
- E-mobility charging demand (dependent on temperature)
- Photovoltaic generation (dependent on radiation, losses dependent on temperature)
- Wind generation (dependent on wind speed)
- Hydro generation (dependent on hydro inflow)
Individual processing steps are conducted to generate electricity generation profiles from climate data,
e.g. the combination of wind speed levels with power curves of turbines in the case of wind power.
Results and conclusions
Resulting of the processing of climate data with energy system data, we receive hourly profiles for
each 30 weather years around the modelled years 2030 and 2050 for all European countries. Figure 1
shows as an example the distribution of the annual wind, hydro run-off-river (RoR), and photovoltaics
(PV) generation, as well as electricity demand in the 30 weather years around 2050 in the RCP4.5
scenario combined with a strong decarbonisation scenario (“Decarbonisation Needs”). We can
observe a higher standard deviation in hydro generation than in the other two generation technologies
in Austria. The demand shows a very low fluctuation between years.
en
dc.description.sponsorship
Kommunalkredit Austria AG
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dc.language.iso
en
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dc.subject
Energy system modelling
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dc.subject
Climate modelling
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dc.subject
Security of supply
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dc.title
Modelling the impact of climate change on electricity generation and demand
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dc.type
Presentation
en
dc.type
Vortrag
de
dc.contributor.affiliation
Austrian Institute of Technology, Austria
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dc.contributor.affiliation
Austrian Institute of Technology, Austria
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dc.contributor.affiliation
Austrian Institute of Technology, Austria
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dc.contributor.affiliation
BOKU University, Austria
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dc.contributor.affiliation
BOKU University, Austria
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dc.contributor.affiliation
BOKU University, Austria
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dc.relation.grantno
GZ C061007 „ACRP12 - SECURES - KR19AC0K17532“
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dc.type.category
Conference Presentation
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tuw.project.title
Securing Austria's Electricity Supply in times of Climate Change
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tuw.researchTopic.id
E3
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tuw.researchTopic.name
Climate Neutral, Renewable and Conventional Energy Supply Systems
