The Problems of Forecasts in Civil Engineering

Abstract

This essay explores the historical development, terminology, and philosophical aspects of traffic forecasting. It highlights the limitations and uncertainties associated with predicting future events in transportation planning. The INUS concept is applied to understand the complexity of causality in traffic phenomena. The essay discusses strategies for dealing with uncertainty, including considering known unknowns and unknown unknowns, using Knightian probabilities and distinguishing between subjective and objective probabilities. It also touches upon normative forecasts and the dangers of magical thinking in setting unrealistic goals. Finally, the abstract emphasizes the importance of critical evaluation and review of projections and the need for modesty, scepticism and openness to new information in decision-making processes. This essay aims to consider the challenges and strategies involved in traffic forecasting, delving into its historical development, philosophical underpinnings and the inherent uncertainties associated with predicting future events in transportation planning. By examining the limitations of forecasting methods and discussing various strategies to address uncertainty, the article seeks to enhance understanding and decision-making processes in traffic forecasting. It also emphasizes the need for critical evaluation, transparency, and a balanced approach when utilizing forecasts to inform policymakers.