Integrated modelling of fertilizer and climate change scenario impacts on agricultural production and nitrogen losses in Austria

Abstract

The European Commission's Farm to Fork strategy aims at reducing nutrient losses and fertilizer use, but has been criticized for its expected negative impacts on European economy, agriculture, and food supply. We apply an integrated modelling framework to analyze potential effects of fertilizer reductions on land use, nitrogen losses, and agricultural output of two fertilizer and four climate change scenarios. The fertilizer scenarios comprise a uniform 20 % reduction of mineral N fertilizer (f20) and a combination of several fertilizer restrictions (fcm). The model results indicate that the restrictions in fertilization lead to decreases in crop production of 6 to 9 %, whereas intensive and extensive grassland production increases. N losses to air, water, and soil are substantially reduced by 9 % (f20) and 20 % (fcm), yet fall short of the intended 50 % reduction. The regional heterogeneity of the model results shows that tailored measures need to be elaborated by taking climate change developments, the regional heterogeneity of prevalent farming systems, and bio-physical conditions into account. Uniform measures applied to the national policy context fall short to attain policy targets cost-effectively. N emission capping, taxes or managerial measures such as crop rotational N balancing are options to be explored in future research.