Monte Carlo-Based Error Propagation for a More Reliable Regression Analysis across Specific Rates in Bioprocesses

Abstract

During process development, bioprocess data need to be converted into applicable knowledge. Therefore, it is crucial to evaluate the obtained data under the usage of transparent and reliable data reduction and correlation techniques. Within this contribution, we show a generic Monte Carlo error propagation and regression approach applied to two different, industrially relevant cultivation processes. Based on measurement uncertainties, errors for cell-specific growth, uptake, and production rates were determined across an evaluation chain, with interlinked inputs and outputs. These uncertainties were subsequently included in regression analysis to derive the covariance of the regression coefficients and the confidence bounds for prediction. The usefulness of the approach is shown within two case studies, based on the relations across biomass-specific rate control limits to guarantee high productivities in E. coli, and low lactate formation in a CHO cell fed-batch could be established. Besides the possibility to determine realistic errors on the evaluated process data, the presented approach helps to differentiate between reliable and unreliable correlations and prevents the wrong interpretations of relations based on uncertain data.