Market dynamics and power risks in green technology materials: Platinum under the EU 2030 hydrogen target

Abstract

The central role of hydrogen in the EU's decarbonization strategy has increased the importance of critical raw materials. To address this, the EU has taken legislative steps, including the 2023 Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), to ensure a stable supply. Using a leader–follower Stackelberg game framework, this study analyzes CRM market dynamics, integrating CRMA compliance through rules on sourcing and stockpiling, value chain resilience via the inclusion of supply diversification strategies, and geopolitical influences by modeling exporter behaviors and trade dependencies. Results highlight the potential for strategic behavior by major exporters, stressing the benefits of diversifying export sources and maintaining strategic stockpiles to stabilize supply. The findings provide insights into the EU's efforts to secure CRM supplies, key to achieving decarbonization goals and fostering a sustainable energy transition. Future research should explore alternative cost-reduction strategies, mitigate exporter market power, and evaluate the implications for pricing mechanisms, market outcomes, and consumer welfare