When the Wells Run Dry: Understanding Drought Driven Migration in the Middle East through a Socio- Environmental Lens

Abstract

Drought is no longer a temporary climatic event but a slow onset disaster that is reshaping migration patterns across the Middle East. This thesis argues that prolonged water scarcity in the region exacerbates social vulnerabilities, compelling populations to migrate in search of more secure livelihoods. With hundreds of millions projected to face drought triggered displacement in the coming years, understanding the intersection between this slow onset disaster and resettlement is essential. Despite widespread acknowledgment of climate change as a migration driver, the specific links between drought and movement patterns in the Middle East remain underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by investigating the impact drought has on rural communities in Jordan and Iraq, disproportionately affecting agriculture dependent populations and vulnerable groups, driving rural to urban migration. The study seeks to contribute to the existing literature on drought induced migration by focusing on the relationship between prolonged drought conditions and internal migration patterns in the region. Yet, understanding these dynamics is challenged by the lack of comprehensive data on the topic and an accurate impact trajectory. While European media often frames migration flows from the Middle East as a predominantly negative phenomenon impacting European countries, this paper shifts the focus to a regional analysis, emphasizing internal mobility dynamics within the Middle East. Few people migrate by choice; many migrate out of necessity. Centered around drought as a key driver of necessary environmental migration in the Middle East, this study aims to shed light on a largely overlooked aspect of climate induced movement in the region.