Evaluierung von Maßnahmen zur Förderung des Kunststoffrecyclings mittels eines wirtschaftsmathematischen Modells

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant distortions in the recycling sector. The recycling of plastic packaging was particularly affected, as the sharp decline in crude oil prices resulted in much cheaper virgin plastics. Consequently, recyclers had difficulties getting their recyclates into the market and the storages filled up. To stabilize the long-term demand for recyclates, the introduction of a mandatory minimum recyclate utilization rate in plastic packaging production was proposed.

To examine the implications of such a measure, the plastic packaging system was modeled as a simplified material flow system and linked to an economic equilibrium model. Various scenarios were used to analyze how the system responds to sharply declining virgin plastic prices and the implementation of a minimum utilization rate. The results indicate that the model accurately reproduces the qualitative effects observed. At the same time, it becomes clear that a minimum utilization rate alone is insufficient to achieve the desired environmental and economic objectives.

Nevertheless, the developed model proves to be a suitable tool for designing and evaluating policy measures aimed at stabilizing and promoting plastic recycling. It enhances the understanding of the interactions between market mechanisms and policy interventions and thus contributes to the development of effective strategies for a more sustainable circular economy.