Evaluating the effectiveness of Kenya’s carbon markets regulatory framework on carbon market integrity and credibility : A critical analysis of the climate change (carbon markets) regulations, 2024

Abstract

This thesis critically evaluates the effectiveness of Kenya’s Climate Change (Carbon Markets) Regulations, 2024, in enhancing the credibility and integrity of the country’s emerging carbon market. While carbon markets are increasingly recognized as vital instruments for achieving global climate goals, their legitimacy depends on strong governance frameworks, transparent monitoring, and equitable benefit-sharing. Kenya’s carbon market historically operated in a regulatory vacuum, leading to weak oversight, overlapping mandates, and limited community participation. The 2024 Regulations mark a significant shift toward structured governance by establishing legal, institutional, and procedural frameworks aligned with the Paris Agreement’s Article 6 provisions.The study adopts a qualitative–analytical methodology that combines doctrinal legal analysis, comparative policy review, and institutional diagnostics guided by Ostrom’s Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework and Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) criteria. MAXQDA Analytics Pro-assisted qualitative content analysis is applied to policy documents, legal texts, and stakeholder submissions, while international benchmarking is undertaken against the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), South Africa’s carbon tax regime, and Rwanda’s climate finance initiatives.Findings reveal that the 2024 Regulations provide a robust foundation for market integrity through provisions on monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV), anti-greenwashing safeguards, and community benefit-sharing. However, significant challenges remain regarding institutional capacity, digital MRV infrastructure, enforcement mechanisms, and equitable distribution of benefits at community level. Comparative analysis highlights both Kenya’s regulatory innovations and the persistent governance gaps that require sustained reforms and international support.The thesis concludes that while Kenya’s framework demonstrates regulatory readiness and alignment with international standards, its effectiveness will depend on strengthening institutional capacity, ensuring digital MRV systems, and enforcing participatory mechanisms. Policy recommendations emphasize capacity building, transparency, and integration with global standards to position Kenya as a credible actor in international carbon markets. Ultimately, the study contributes to governance scholarship and climate policy by illustrating how developing countries can navigate the balance between regulatory design, integrity, and inclusivity in carbon market governance.