After the sanctions: Iran's renewable energy outlook : A technical, economic and policy analysis

Abstract

Iran is endowed with excellent climatic and tectonic conditions for harvesting green energy. The main objectives of this thesis were to identify the technical potential and the economic feasibility of three specific renewable energy sources, namely solar/photovoltaic, wind and geothermal energy. In addition, this study looked at current energy-policies and how they support or hinder the development of sustainable energy. The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats were aggregated, giving an overview of the country's to-do list for a successful green energy future in particular under the perspective of UN-sanctions relief in January of 2016. While the technical potential was estimated with mathematical equations based on available data, statistics (e.g. Weibull distribution) and assumptions, the economic potential (NPV, LRGC, project/equity IRR) was calculated for one specific site or plant per energy source under real-time conditions (feed-in-tariffs, escalation rate, inflation exchange, etc.), including a stress test (sensitivity analyses) for O & M costs, feed-in-tariffs and full-load-hours. The research was rounded up with a two month cooperation stay on-site with the Research Institute of Energy Management and Planning (RIEMP). The examination of current energy-policies was conducted with a SWOT analysis, followed by recommendations and strategies for policy-makers and investors. The technical potential for solar energy was estimated to be 56,597 GWp, 186,102 GWh for wind, and 35,723 MWe for geothermal. Under current energy policies, solar power plants are considerable while wind and geothermal power plants are highly economically viable. SWOT analysis of Iran's 2021 target of 5,000 MW renewables installed capacity concluded that the country will need to make a comprehensive long-term renewable energy package, tackle environmentally harmful subsidies, maintain highly competitive long-run guaranteed purchase prices and additional incentives on renewable energy sources, empower banks and civil society, invest in education and strive for international technology and know-how transfer.