Development and assessment of future air pollution pathways

Abstract

This dissertation focuses on the development and analysis of long-term scenarios of air pollutants. The primary goal is to develop consistent and comprehensive global trajectories of a future air pollution emissions including a wide range of assumptions related to energy systems development, mitigation technologies, air quality legislations and institutional capacity. A secondary objective is to understand the co-benefits of climate policies for ambient air quality and health. This dissertation aims to bridge hitherto relatively independent communities working on climate change and air pollution. It includes a significant advancement of methodology by bridging the gap between the complexity in estimating the impacts of policies on outdoor air pollution and the need for simplified representations of the same in IAMs. This study fulfils the growing need for systems based integrated analysis that combines sophisticated modeling of policies, behavior of regulated entities, atmospheric transport chemistry, and climate science and health effects to take advantage of the co-benefits of climate change in policy design. This dissertation describes the progressive advancements in the modeling and development of air pollution scenarios in integrated assessment models. The scenarios span a wide range of assumptions on technological development and extent and implementation of air pollution policies. They further include policies on climate change and energy access in an effort to understand the implications of multiple policies for air pollution and health outcomes. The findings in this dissertation support the notion that scenarios generated by energy-economy-climate models can provide critical information to the ongoing policy debate on aligning global and national actions to achieve key SDGs related to air pollution and climate change. The comprehensive research framework provided by the compilation of this thesis provides key results that contribute to the understanding of crucial and decisive aspects related to the possible evolution of air pollution emissions in the future. The need for immediate action to achieve large improvements in air quality and the betterment of overall health of the global population are emphasized. The relevance of strengthening current efforts on air pollution control and the possible benefits of a multiple policy approach that targets different sectors is highlighted. The dissertation also discusses the potential co-benefits and tradeoffs from long-term climate policies for near-term ambient air quality. The dissertation identifies an urgent need for policy incentives driven by air quality and health concerns. The research framework also paves the way for future efforts related to the enhancement of methodological sophistication and policy relevance in scenario development concerning air pollution.