Weinmann, R. (2020). Rebounde Effects and their implication on energy efficiency goals: an analysis of the EU 2030 and EU 2050 energy strategies [Master Thesis, Technische Universität Wien]. reposiTUm. https://doi.org/10.34726/hss.2020.80657
energy efficieny; rebound effect; energy strategy; European Union; energy policy
en
Abstract:
This research critically analyses the European 2030 and 2050 Energy Strategies with a special focus on the energy efficiency goals and a possible rebound effect. The EU 2030 energy goals are mentioned in various directives, amendments, resolutions, and communications from which the most important points are summed up and analysed with regards to the rebound effect. The main points for the 2030 strategy in energy efficiency are energy-efficient buildings, energy-efficient products, the cogeneration of heat and power and the financing of energy efficiency. The 2050 goals are carbon neutrality and a tremendous reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 80 to 95% percent. Therefore, energy efficiency will be still important as a considerable downsizing of the economy is needed, but the rebound effect should not be a major issue anymore. There is no mention of the rebound effect directly in any of the documents looked at and specific requirements are only on national basis via national climate and energy plans and renovation plans for buildings. The rebound effect on a national level is not of huge importance either from the case of Austria that was looked at more closely. For the analysis of the rebound effect first definitions have been established and the development of the rebound effect over the years. Then two major studies that estimate the rebound effect of the EU households have been closely looked at. The studies yield different estimations of the value for the rebound effect as Galvin is estimating the broad-brush rebound effect, whereas Freire González estimates the indirect rebound effect with flat amounts of direct rebound effects. Both methodologies are very different and also the data taken is different. Nevertheless, the results for most countries are quite similar und within a certain range that can together with other empirical estimations be taken as the rebound effect. The rebound effect definitely exists and is not overrated, especially if successful greenhouse gas emission reductions via energy efficiency gains want to be achieved. The rebound effect can only be neglected, and goals will not have to be revised upwards if the environmental efficiency increases, a shift to greener consumption patterns happens, and the economy will be downsized significantly. So, that almost a 100% of the energy can be supplied from renewable energy sources. This way increased consumption by neither the direct nor the indirect rebound effect will lead to greenhouse gas emissions.