Cost drivers and their variability for wind energy plants especially for offshore wind parks on the Romanian Black Sea shore

Abstract

This thesis deals on one hand with the analysis of the associated risks encountered in the development of onshore and offshore wind parks and on the other hand with the economic feasibility of offshore investments on the Romanian Black Sea coast. Therefore, similarities and differences between onshore and offshore projects had been analysed and an economic feasibility calculation has been done.The main input factors have been defined. Wind energy density, energy losses, availability, curtailments, balancing energy requirements and regulatory changes within the revenues, feasibility works, development expenses, installation, turbine acquisition and electrical works and grid integration within the CAPEX and cost of maintenance, insurance and lease within the OPEX are determined. Furthermore, their variation, such as the input factors´ variability or uncertainty (under/over estimation of the necessary needed amount of the input factors as cost drivers) is quantified. These input factors, their uncertainties and their interplay are modelled and as output the most likely costs and their combined uncertainties are displayed in a tornado diagram. In conclusion, an assessment concerning the uncertainties and the differences between onshore and offshore wind energy projects is being done. The results obtained in this way are concretely used in a feasibility study focusing on the potential of building offshore wind parks on the western Romanian shore of the Black Sea. Firstly, the technical feasibility is obtained out of a calculation tool after introducing the main relevant data for wind power generation of the region. Secondly, the economic feasibility is obtained out of a calculation tool after introducing the relevant data concerning the variability and probability of both the planed costs and income streams of the project. Thirdly, the law environment, the situation on the electricity market and other regional and country-specific factors and influences are being taken into consideration. In conclusion, the feasibility study is built upon taking into consideration of the main project influencing parameters. In conclusion, better and worse case scenarios based on P50 and P75 exceeding probability levels are being presented for a potential offshore development in two dimensions, 100 and 500 megawatt installed capacity respectively.