Optimal control of violence during insurgencies

Abstract

The outcome of insurgencies depends crucially on the support of the population. A paper by Michael Atkinson and Moshe Kress provides modelling of the effects of violence by the regime and by the insurgency on the existing population.<br />The so called 'Recency Case' is represented in the first part of this thesis. We want to find an optimal control of this behaviour.<br />In chapter 3 we define the optimal control model and because of the complexity of the canonical system we need to make a parameter bifurcation, which happens in chapter 4. In chapter 5 we find steady states of the model in different cases of the targeting accuracy of the regime and the insurgents and compare the results with those of the uncontrolled model of Atkinson and Kress.