Factors influencing the construction duration and cost of nuclear power plants

Abstract

This thesis looked into the factors influencing the construction duration of nuclear power plants. Simple and multiple linear regressions were performed to determine which factors are the most influential, first for all commercial reactors in the world, then focusing on individual countries and reactor types. Furthermore, a similar analysis was performed on the cost of US and French reactors, with the hypothesis that the cost escalation is largely due to construction-time overruns.<br />Considering the year of construction start, the average construction duration has been increasing from the very beginning of commercial nuclear energy (1950s), due to the factors such as new reactor designs, capacity increase, regulatory requirements and financing difficulties.<br />Since the mid-1980s, the construction duration has been steadily decreasing and in the past 20 years has reached an average comparable to that of the earliest reactors. Country's market size and GDP did not seem to have a significant effect on construction speed. Regression models for individual countries proved much more explanatory than those for individual reactor types. The influence of various factors on construction duration in any country is usually disproportionately higher if that country has a low number of reactors. A similar regression scenario is encountered if most reactors of one type are located in a single country. Coefficients of determination for construction duration were rarely satisfactory, indicating the need for additional, more explanatory variables.<br />The cost of French and American reactors turned out to greatly depend on construction duration, even without considering the effect of interest.<br />In France where reactors are highly standardized, every new class brought a change in design and an increase in capacity resulting in construction time overruns and cost escalation, most obviously in the latest 1500MW units. In USA, where standardization degree is low and average construction duration high, the effect of any independent variable on reactor cost is much greater. More importantly, the analysis showed that the cost of reactors in the USA was significantly higher than in France putting a question mark on the future of new nuclear plants in the United States.