Estimation of gas network length and associated costs for EU-27 at NUTS 3lLevel based on open data

Abstract

The European Union follows the objective of becoming carbon-neutral before 2050. To achieve this goal, a high share of fossil energy carriers (mainly coal, oil and natural gas) must be replaced by renewables. Many scenarios have been developed since then, portraying a European Energy System based on renewable technologies. These scenarios envisage a gradual phase-out of the individual fossil energy sources in the order of their CO2 emissions from the largest to the smallest. Natural gas, which is considered one of the ‘cleanest’ fossil energy sources, should be the last to disappear from the primary energy mix. However, since the Ukraine crisis, the European Union (EU) aims to drastically reduce the import of Russian natural gas for political reasons. Since the supply of natural gas from other sources is very difficult to replace for transport reasons, it will be eliminated from the primary energy mix even more rapidly in the medium term. According to [1], the influence of drastic changes in the amount of gas flowing through Europeans’ gas networks on costs for gas transport and distribution is not fully understood so far. Therefore, this work aims to develop an Open-source Geographic Information System (OGIS) based economic cash flow model that estimates distribution grid length, gas demand and associated distribution costs in the EU.In the face of low availability of open natural gas network data, the method follows a top-down approach based on OpenStreetMap (OSM) building data and www.hotmaps-project.eu data maps which are open-data. The method is applied to Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) 3 regions of the EU-27 for which results of grid length, gas demand and network costs are shown and discussed on an EU-wide basis. Based on the results, further steps to improve the model are suggested. A sensitivity analysis of the developed model shows the influence of the individual input parameters on the results.In order to calculate the results for 2050, scenario assumptions of comprehensive building stock renovation measures and exchange of heating systems for the building stock are made to meet the EU goals of a carbon-neutral energy system in 2050. The underlying gas demand on country level (NUTS 0) is taken from an ongoing research project [2] and is not within the scope of this thesis. Based on these scenario assumptions and gas demand, the regional (NUTS 3) results on gas demand and network length show a significant decrease until 2050. Further, net present value calculations show increasing gas distribution costs as a result of decreasing gas sales. Without any countermeasures of network operators,network assets are at risk of becoming stranded or devalued in the medium or long term.Considered measures are increasing grid charges and/or decommissioning of individual lines to guarantee the profitability of distribution networks. Further studies are needed to evaluate potential strategies and their impact.