Probabilistic analysis for the design of a Vienna metro shaft using Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

This paper describes a method of using Monte Carlo simulation for the probabilistic analysis of the shaft structure of a projected metro line in Vienna. The paper presents a discussion of the quality of the input data in the context of their probabilistic variability and their influence on the stress-strain state of the structures. A variant of the problem using the Hardening Soil (HS) and Hardening Soil Small (HSS) models and representing an improved elastic-plastic model was selected for statistical modelling. As a result of multiple variational modelling of the initial data of the soil in which the considered reinforced concrete structures of the tunnel are located, coefficients of variation for the main package of forces and deformations occurring in the reinforced concrete structures and in the soil mass were obtained. These coefficients of variation can then be used in the design process of reinforced concrete structures of this type. The probability of failure according to the criterion of additional settlement for buildings located near the construction site was determined. The degree of influence of certain initial data on the stress-strain state of the structure was also determined using regression analysis.