New economic geographies of war: risks and disruptions in Eurasian transport routes and supply chains through the military conflict in Ukraine

Abstract

The pandemic and the last years’ geopolitical disruptions have laid bare the vulnerability of Europe’s supply chains, as well as the challenges posed by insecure oil and gas supplies. In this contribution, we aim to add to this debate by raising awareness of the vulnerability of trade and supply chain infrastructure between Europe and Asia. We give an overview of the risks for supply chain securities due to the risk of military and armed conflicts and geopolitical challenges more broadly, illustrated by a map of central logistic corridors and hubs. We further discuss the contemporary implications for each corridor due to the war in Ukraine. By making use of the example of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), we argue that trade along these corridors is highly interdependent and that the continued conflict in Ukraine poses a danger for independent, diversified and resilient trade across Eurasia. The paper calls for future research in economic geography, military geographies and related international business literature to (jointly) reemphasize the economic geographies of war, by for instance analysing shifts in global value chains and global production networks as a result of violent conflicts.