Integrating heat pump flexibility in building stock modeling to support decarbonization through sector coupled energy systems

Abstract

In a future decarbonized energy system, demand side flexibility will be crucial for maintaining electricity grid stability. Heat pumps will play a key role in decarbonizing the heating sector, and they can also offer an opportunity to shift electrical demand for short periods of time, even without any storage installations. This thesis investigates what the future potential of the residential building stock in the EU Member States is, to contribute to the future short-term demand side flexibility needs. To achieve this, heat pump flexibility is integrated into building stock modeling. Particularly, an optimization model was developed to be applied on the results of an existing building stock model. The model optimizes the demand-side flexibility of prosumagers—households that both produce and consume electricity, by minimizing their electricity costs considering hourly price signals. The model was validated by comparing it with a building simulation tool and via different optimization techniques. Following the validation, the model was applied to analyze demand response potential at the EU level for each Member State, providing insights into how national characteristics influence the overall flexibility contribution from residential buildings. This dissertation is structured around five peer-reviewed publications addressing the following topics: 1) the potential for shifting electricity demand using thermal mass, 2) the influence of different hourly electricity price signals on demand side flexibility, and 3) the impact of prosumagers on electricity distribution grids in future scenarios.Findings suggest that the thermal mass can significantly increase demand shifting abilities with at least one third of all demand shifted by prosumagers attributed to the thermal mass. The electricity price signal is highlighted as a driver for demand-side response, showing that rising electricity price volatility can double the amount of energy prosumagers would shift under a cost-minimization rationale. Results underscore the importance of appropriate price signals and reducing peak demand to limit additional stress on the electricity distribution grid. Together, the five papers provide a comprehensive overview of future demand flexibility potential within the residential building stock, highlighting key drivers, possible contributions to short-term flexibility, and challenges for electricity grids.A need for future work is pointed out in regards to data availability for buildings ata spatially disaggregated level within the EU. Further, taking the flexibility at the distribution electricity grid level into account will be crucial for planning the future electricity system.