Beyond efficiency: Exploring the socio-economic and demographic drivers of sufficiency in buildings

Abstract

Switzerland's current building renovation rate is insufficient to meet its 2050 climate goals, highlighting the need for sufficiency measures that reduce the overall demand for resources by promoting shared living practices and optimizing the use of existing buildings alongside efficiency improvements. This study investigates how municipal-level socioeconomic and demographic features relate to CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of sufficiency. Building-level data is used to calculate the operational emissions savings of several sufficiency, efficiency and combined scenarios. Using XGBoost and SHAP, key municipal features influencing emission reduction are identified, with SHAP values revealing both their impact and whether they increase or decrease CO₂ emissions. Results show that the most ambitious combined scenario yields the highest annual reduction potential of up to 1015 kgCO₂/capita, corresponding to a reduction around 78%. SHAP analysis shows a significant influence of demographic (e.g. apartments per capita, household size) and socio-economic (e.g. rents, income) features on operational CO2 emissions reduction. These findings can offer valuable insights to develop policies on how combined sufficiency and efficiency measures can be targeted and locally tailored to complement existing renovation initiatives and serve as effective baseline for reducing climate impact.