Assessment of Wheat and Rye Straw Availability in the EU-27 for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production through Solar Pyrolysis and Alignment with ReFuelEU Aviation Targets through 2050

Abstract

This study evaluates the availability of second-generation biomass resources across the EU-27, focusing on wheat and rye straw as sustainable feedstocks for aviation fuel production. Recognized under Annex IX of the Renewable Energy Directive II, straw is a bio-based, low-cost residue with strong potential to support the EU’s decarbonization goals. Historical crop production data (2000–2023) from public official national sources informed residue availability estimates under low, base, and high scenarios. Forecasts for 2030 and 2050 were generated using three methods, revealing that countries like Denmark, Slovakia, and Bulgaria could exceed their future aviation fuel needs, while others, such as Belgium and Greece, fall significantly short. SAF production potential was assessed via solar-assisted thermal fast pyrolysis and downstream processing. Visual mapping in Microsoft Excel illustrates regional disparities. A SWOT analysis highlights the strengths of the straw—abundance and non-competition with food, but also addresses logistical and seasonal challenges. Results show that, under the base scenario, SAF from straw could replace up to 2088% of Jet A-1 demand in some countries by 2030, though many member states are projected to fall below replacement targets by 2050. Overall, agricultural residues represent a strategic opportunity to advance sustainable aviation, strengthen rural economies, and meet ReFuelEU Aviation targets.