A Case Study on Low-Voltage Grid Impact of Rising Residential Cooling Demand Under Climate Change

Abstract

The increasing demand for residential cooling, caused by climate change, induces increased stress on low-voltage distribution grids. This study presents a case analysis integrating the SimBench dataset with high-resolution SECURES-Met climate data to model diverse residential building types under varying air conditioning penetration rates. A power-flow analysis incorporating different building characteristics is conducted to evaluate the interactions between cooling demand and local photovoltaic generation. The results quantify a substantial increase in cooling demand under severe heat waves, with air conditioning penetration being the dominant factor driving peak grid loads. The study demonstrates that adaptation of usage patterns can nearly halve the energy consumption, while building parameters, specifically solar absorption, effectively lower the overall cooling demand. Moreover, the temporal mismatch between peak cooling demand in the evening and midday photovoltaic generation highlights the necessity of energy storage solutions to enhance the integration of renewable energy sources.