New Methodological Approach for Determining Historical and Forecasting Future TTW Emissions from Country-Specific Vehicle Fleets

Abstract

Road transport is one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the European Union. European legislation aims to reduce the emissions of future new vehicles by setting limits and thus achieve the ambitious climate targets set by the EU. The directives only cover emissions during driving, which only represent a part of the total emissions of vehicles. In the literature, the methodology of a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used in order to be able to visualise the holistic emissions of vehicles. The aim of the PROVEM research project is to determine the holistic emissions of European road transport (EU-27) in the sense of an LCA in order to gain a deeper understanding of the generation of emissions and to be able to evaluate individual measures in relation to each other. This paper describes the newly developed methodology from the PROVEM research project for determining emissions during driving. The hourly emissions assessment of entire vehicle fleets on the basis of real vehicle movements represents a significant new value compared to the existing literature. This hourly assessment makes it possible for the first time to visualise seasonal effects, which have a significant influence on emissions, particularly for vehicles with alternative drive types. The key components in the calculation are the vehicle population, mileage and specific emissions. The challenges and the methodological implementation of an hourly time interval for these components are explained in more detail in this paper.