Flexibility constraints specification with volatility assessment for reliable demand side flexibility

Abstract

Flexibility is an enabler and key characteristic of modern energy systems. It supports an open, inclusive and efficient energy supply from renewable sources. Demand-side-flexibility is often volatile and constraint to small volumes. The presented examples sketch the Flex Offer methodology to specify constraints and introduce the fulfilment likelihood required to cover volatility. Combinatorial availability and the variable PV shading caused by a cloudy sky are exemplarily modelled to highlight the importance of the fulfilment likelihood assessment only. Practical volatility prediction is assumed to use live observation and machine learning to achieve an accurate assessment, which is not the topic of the presented work.