The economics of decarbonizing road freight transport : comparing Europe, USA and China

Abstract

This thesis examines the techno-economic and environmental feasibility of decarbonizing long-haul heavy-duty road freight through battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel-cell vehicles (FCVs) in comparison with conventional diesel trucks. The primary focus lies on Europe, complemented by comparative case analyses for the United States and China in order to account for differences in energy systems, cost structures, and policy frameworks.An integrated modelling framework was developed that combines a discounted-cash-flow-based Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) model with a life-cycle assessment (LCA). The analysis is based on a representative 40-tonne long-haul truck with an annual mileage of 120,000 km and a lifetime mileage of 960,000 km. The TCO model includes vehicle and infrastructure capital expenditure, energy costs, maintenance, tolls, insurance, and residual values, while the LCA covers well-to-tank, tank-to-wheel, and manufacturing-related greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, operational parameters relevant to freight transport, including payload effects, ambient-temperature-related energy consumption, charging downtime, and battery degradation represented through residual value effects, are incorporated into the analytical framework. Where consistent market data were unavailable for all countries and years, intermediate values were derived using transparent interpolation and literature-informed averaging assumptions.The results indicate that BEVs constitute the most robust near- to medium-term pathway to cost competitiveness relative to diesel. In several European cases, BEVs reach or approach cost parity with diesel under baseline assumptions, primarily due to lower operating costs. However, this advantage becomes less pronounced when transport performance is assessed in tonne-kilometres, since the higher battery mass reduces payload capacity and therefore transport efficiency. FCVs also improve over time, but their cost competitiveness shows greater variability across countries and scenarios and remains more sensitive to hydrogen price and infrastructure developments than that of BEVs.From an environmental perspective, BEVs provide the most consistent life-cycle emission reductions across the analysed countries under average national electricity conditions. FCVs, by contrast, show strongly differentiated outcomes because their climate performance depends critically on the hydrogen supply pathway. When hydrogen is produced via average grid-based electrolysis, FCV life-cycle emissions can exceed diesel in carbon-intensive electricity systems. By contrast, the renewable-only hydrogen benchmark yields low and comparatively stable FCV emissions across countries. This result, however, should be interpreted as a pathway benchmark rather than as a like-for-like superiority result over BEVs, since the BEV comparison remains tied to average national electricity conditions.The sensitivity analysis identifies payload capacity as the most influential operational parameter under the €/t-km perspective, followed by ambient-temperature-related energy consumption, whereas charging duration and battery degradation exert smaller effects within the assumed 2030 baseline framework. The policy analysis further shows that technology competitiveness depends not only on cost reductions and efficiency improvements, but also on the strength and design of policy support. Austria represents the strongest case of policy-supported zero-emission competitiveness, China allows BEVs to become marginally cost-competitive by 2030, while in the United States diesel remains difficult to displace despite support measures. Overall, the findings suggest that BEVs represent the most broadly viable decarbonization pathway for long-haul freight in the near term, while FCVs may become relevant in more specific contexts where renewable or otherwise low-carbon hydrogen and adequate infrastructure are available.