Project continuation after grand innovation prizes : strategic responses to the Google Lunar XPRIZE

Abstract

Technical Grand Innovation Prizes (GIPs) aim to overcome breakthrough technological hurdles by crowdsourcing distant heterogeneous talent. By combining a clear target with specific performance goals, a public legitimacy signal and potential patent rights, this prize-plus-patent paradigm catalyzes innovation by providing both upfront reward and ongoing market exclusivity. However, while the literature extensively covers prize design, research rarely examines the post-prize trajectories of non-winning participants. To address this gap, this thesis examines post-prize continuation using the Google Lunar XPRIZE (GLXP). The GLXP ended in 2018 without a winner, creating a clear cliff-effect boundary for continuation forms. This makes it a conservative case-study of continuation which is insulated from a winner payout and the associated visibility effects. Therefore, the thesis tracks a high variance set of GLXP team lineages on a level post-prize playing field, traces post-prize evolution using time-stamped, publicly verifiable sources, and draws actionable conclusions for GIP stakeholders. Methodologically, the study is a cross-case comparison. It compiles an auditable evidence register and codes each lineage on a set of continuation signals (organizational persistence, technical progress and mission attempts, financing, contracting, and partnerships). These signals are summarized in a Continuation Index and compared across cases. Overall, the analysis demonstrates that post-prize continuation after a technical GIP produces a set of measurable, determinable pathways that depend on whether prize-induced capabilities can be converted into durable opportunity structures. In the GLXP case, continuation is strongest where capability formation is coupled to credible post-prize value capture, particularly institutional procurement bridges such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS), while in their absence continuation more often takes the form of consolidation, subcontracting, or pivots. These findings link back to the thesis’ conceptual lens by highlighting how patterns consistent with multitask incentive design, hybrid appropriability, entrepreneurial survival conditions, and creative destruction help frame what persists, diffuses, and scales ex post. Future technical GIPs in capital-intensive domains are more likely to generate sustained and targeted impact when their design and governance actively incorporate these institutional bridging mechanisms.