Production potential of sustainable aviation fuel in EU-27 by 2050: detailed spatial mapping of biowaste-based feedstocks and assessment of the fast pyrolysis pathway

Abstract

Rising global population and living standards are increasing energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, intensifying the need for a sustainable energy transition. The aviation sector remains difficult to decarbonize due to its reliance on fossil-based liquid fuels. Second-generation sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) derived from non-food lignocellulosic biomass offer a promising pathway to reduce emissions without competing with food production. This study assesses biomass availability across the EU-27, focusing on rye and wheat straw, non-hazardous demolition wood Grade B, and pine sawdust as feedstocks for SAF production via fast pyrolysis. Using historical official public data and forecasting approaches, feedstock availability was projected to 2050 at Member State and NUTS 2 level. Low, Base, and Upper scenarios, together with sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, were applied to feedstock and SAF potential production. Total EU-27 biomass feedstock potential ranges between 22.5 and 78.7 Mt in 2030 to 22.3-83.4 Mt in 2050. Wheat straw is the dominant biomass resource, followed by pine sawdust, non-hazardous demolition wood Grade B, and rye straw. SAF production potential ranges from 1.7 to 5.3 Mt in 2030 to 1.7-5.7 Mt in 2050 under the Time Series approach, versus 1.6-5.0 Mt and 1.7-5.5 Mt under CAGR, with production concentrated in key countries. Wheat straw is the main source of feedstock uncertainty, while a ±30% variation in conversion yield results in a corresponding ±30% change in SAF production. Across scenarios, the potential could cover 68-213% (Time Series) and 66-200% (CAGR) of non-synthetic SAF demand in 2030, declining to 11-36% and 11-34% in 2050, respectively.