Potential and costs of geothermal energy with particular interest on district heating

Abstract

The aim of this thesis is to provide a general overview of potential and costs of electricity and heat generation from geothermal energy in Europe, with particular interest on the potential of district heating. The approach taken includes a literature survey, expert interviews and detailed complementary bottom-up modeling to accomplish data lacks identified throughout the literature survey. This thesis provides a synthesis of different data and estimations from different specialized reports and researches concerning the potential for geothermal energy supply and use in Europe. Both district heating and electricity generation have been considered for a broad set of European countries, including the EU28 and focal countries outside the EU. For what concerns the estimation of the district heating potential from geothermal energy in Europe, the existent (i.d. viewed) literature considers only a portion of the European countries. The evaluation has been expanded to the whole continent throughout a graphic and analytic process based on a temperature map provided by the GeoELEC Project. The results and data have been compared in order to have a broader and more consistent view of the geothermal energy potential in Europe. The analysis of the costs of a district heating system powered by geothermal energy has been made with the help of specific case-studies made in different countries. The potential and the costs of the electricity generation from geothermal energy were, in the considered literature, already strictly related, and so they have been reported in this thesis. The results, especially for the heat generation potential, are astonishing: almost every European country possesses a geothermal energy potential already at 1000m depth. The potential increases with deeper depths and with them, in general, the costs sink. In fact, in comparison to a resource at 60°C located at 1km depth, one just 20° warmer located at 2km depth is more economically valuable. The total potential of the 30 analyzed territories accounts for 1428TWhth. The actual European heat generation from geothermal energy is around 14TWhth. Considering only the electricity generation, the amount of electricity potential producible with power plants powered by geothermal energy is above 4000TWhe. If we think that the electricity demand of the EU28 in 2050 will be around 4300TWhe (countries like Turkey and Iceland aren-t included in the calculation), it becomes clear how the geothermal energy could play a key role in the future energetic paradigm.