Scharner, W. (2015). The impact of looming peak oil on world oil price development [Master Thesis, Technische Universität Wien]. reposiTUm. https://doi.org/10.34726/hss.2015.30016
peak oil; oil price; impact factors on oil price; crude oil; supply and demand for oil
en
Abstract:
Forecasting oil prices has been a real challenge in the last decades. The coreobjective of this thesis is to analyze which impact looming peak-oil has on price development. To meet this target historical supply and demand data is being analyzed and interrelated with macroeconomic figures such as population trends and GDP. Trends of available conventional, but also unconventional, reseres and resources are being used to indicate whether peak-oil is forthcoming as predicted by scientists and what influence such negative forecasts had and will hae on oil prices. The major conclusion is: Especially after 2000, oil prices were mainly influenced by virtual demand and not by physical supply and demand. Currently, it is not likely that prices will significantly change due to shortness of supplies in the near future. Due to economic crises there is a moderate economic growth. Moreover, expensive extraction methods balance with a more efficient use of energy but also with regional overcapacities.
