Title: Are scenarios of energy demand in the building stock in line with Paris targets?
Language: English
Authors: Kranzl, Lukas
Aichinger, Eric 
Büchele, Richard
Forthuber, Sebastian 
Hartner, Michael
Müller, Andreas
Toleikyte, Agne 
Category: Research Article
Issue Date: 2019
Journal: Energy Efficiency
ISSN: 1570-646X
COP21 led to an agreed target of keeping the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. Due to its high potential for decarbonisation, the building stock will have to contribute a reduction of at least 85–95% in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions until 2050. Policy-driven scenario analysis is, therefore, important for assisting policy makers who are called upon to develop a corresponding framework to achieve those targets. The research questions of this paper are (1) Do long-term scenarios (in particular those labelled as ambitious) of energy demand in buildings reflect the COP21 target? (2) If not: What are reasons for the gap in terms of scenario assumptions, in particular, regarding the policy framework in the corresponding scenarios? The method builds on following steps: (1) analysis of GHG-emission reduction in scenarios from the policy-driven, bottom-up model Invert/EE-Lab; (2) compare scenarios among each other and analyse if they are in line with Paris targets; (3) discuss possible explanations for any gaps and the implications on future modelling work and policy making. Results show that scenarios labelled as being “ambitious” for several EU MSs achieve GHG-emission reductions of 56–96% until 2050. However, just 27% of these ambitious scenarios achieve reductions above 85%. The reason is that policies for most of the modelled scenarios were developed together with policy makers and stakeholders, who—for different reasons—were not willing to go beyond a certain stringency in the modelled instruments. In particular, this was the case for regulatory instruments, which show to be essential for achieving ambitious climate targets.
Keywords: Scenario development; Climate mitigation; Building stock; Policies
DOI: 10.1007/s12053-018-9701-1
Library ID: AC15324305
URN: urn:nbn:at:at-ubtuw:3-5271
Organisation: E370 - Institut für Energiesysteme und Elektrische Antriebe 
Publication Type: Article
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