Techno economic analysis of individual building renovation roadmaps as an instrument to achieve national energy performance targets

Abstract

In order to achieve the Paris COP21 agreement, retrofitting activities in the building stock have to be strongly enhanced and individual building renovation roadmaps are an instrument considered relevant for guiding building owners through this process. The research question of this paper is: What is the role of individual building renovation roadmaps as instrument to achieve national targets for the energy performance of the building stock? The methodology applied follow: first, the bottom-up building stock model Invert/EE-Lab (www.invert.at) to derives scenarios of building related energy demand, CO2-emissions and costs until the year 2050. These scenarios build on a monthly balance energy need calculation, which is done for a large number of reference buildings and retrofitting packages and are calibrated to long-term policy targets regarding energy performance and CO2-emissions from the building stock. Then, individual building renovation roadmaps were developed (e.g. Germany), based on the design of the individual building renovations, previous experience and literature. Next, using the Building Performance Model, these individual renovation roadmap concepts were applied in order to calculate building’s new energy performance due to renovation measures. Finally, it was analysed to which extent these individual building renovation roadmaps measures are in line with the target achievement for the analysed country. The results showed that with annual individual renovation rates between 5 and 6%, an ambitious scenario to reach stronger energy demand reductions and increasing shares of renewables in the building stock for 2050 can be achieved.