Forecasting complex societal changes : an application of scenario analysis to the issue of refugees and migration

Abstract

This Master Thesis examines the application of the forecasting technique of scenario analysis in the non-profit context. The key research question reads as follows: What structural, organisational or leadership measures can be recommended to effectively use forecasting for complex social matters in the non-profit context? To this end, a scenario analysis on migration scenarios to Europe and Austria is conducted as practical case study. Based on a prior scenario analysis, key drivers and uncertainties are derived from data analysis and then used to create three plausible, but not inevitable stories how migration to Europe/Austria might develop in the next 10 to 15 years. The three scenarios are -Destination Europe-, -Slow implosion- and -Exodus-. In conclusion I suggest for non-profit organisations to follow these four steps if they intend to introduce a forecasting tool like the scenario analysis: 1) Conduct an initial scenario analysis. It provides a set of key drivers, identifies critical uncertainties and supports the formulation of strategic actions for the different scenarios. 2) Review the initial scenario analysis after an appropriate time period 3) Follow-up with another analysis if necessary to re-focus the scope of the scenario analysis, taking into account the results from the initial analysis, and building on that. 4) Feedback to management in order to decide if there is a need of adjustment in strategic planning based on these scenarios. Finally, leadership, team building and training measures geared towards the forecasting capabilities will increase the successful application of this tool.