E105 - Institut für Stochastik und Wirtschaftsmathematik
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Spain Unemployment Production
Since crisis started in 2007, worldwide economies had been affected by this issue, especially Spain. Spain is a very volatile country and because of that risk-prime and unemployment has increased a lot in the years after the crisis began. We are going to predict the future of unemployment in Spain for the period 2014-2018 through the using of Input-Output tables for five different sectors (agriculture, industry, construction, finances and services) and in three different scenarios. Also apart of using IO tables we have used data from other sources such as AMECO, INE, OECD, etc. Input-Output tables are a tool which examines all the flush of money within an economy and express in a matrix all the correlations within the sectors. It says the inputs we have to introduce in the system to increase the output in one unit. Amidst what appears to be the final stages of the economic crisis for Spain, this work gives a closer look into the Spanish productive system and the Spanish economy. During the first part of this thesis three works dealing with the topic of the Spanish productive system are analyzed. They are thoroughly explored and explained with the idea of giving a sample of what researchers are working regarding this topic. In the second part, chapters 2 through 10, the actual analysis of the Spanish production system is given. This part starts by describing general institutions and determinants and how they work in order to later describe the evolution of an aggregate of main sectors through the last 20 to 25 years and to point out the most influencing factors in each of them, mostly in the form of regulation. In many cases these descriptions give ideas of some underlying problems with particular sectors. Next, some aspects of Spain's economy in the international context, like exports of goods and services for example, are described leading toward the end of this part where several macroeconomic indicators are described.
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