A synergetic analysis of verification technologies of I.A.E.A and C.T.B.T.O for nuclear non-proliferation and security

Abstract

The existence of nuclear weapons and the risk of proliferation of nuclear weapons poses a big threat to the world. Aiming at nuclear non-proliferation, IAEA and CTBTO were established with separate verification regimes. This dissertation examines the role of the respective verification regimes of these organisations by understanding their working principles & parameters in order to identify and assess possible synergies between their verification technologies through case studies and analysis. It aims to answer critical questions on existing verification regime, current opposition to synergies, possible synergies in context of non-proliferation and feasibility studies of such synergies with their strengths & weakness. The thesis offers a descriptive account of the organisational objectives, mandate and current technologies of the IAEA and CTBTO to develop a strong background for their synthesis. This study is significant because till date, no systematic investigation has considered developing a synergy model, as done in this thesis, in the form a combined dataset system aiming at a stronger, more accurate and efficient non-proliferation regime. For arriving at the research strategy, in depth technical analysis of the currently employed methodologies was done to identify the key variables and parameters for synergising each technology between IAEA and CTBTO. Exhaustive analysis based on existing studies and models was performed to deduce the synergies via different cases and scenarios. The findings from the research illustrates on the potential synergies and the nature of nuclear activity based on the various parameters and values providing qualitative and quantitative analysis for the thesis. Empirical calculations are used to determine the net impact of the considered synergies. While concluding the thesis, results, strengths and limitations of the study are discussed with clear focus on future research and recommendations considering the strong potential of an enhanced verification regime for nuclear non-proliferation and security.