A dynamic framework for flood risk

Abstract

Long-term feedbacks between humans and floods may lead to complex phenomena such as coping strategies, levee effects, call effects, adaptation effects, and poverty traps. Such phenomena cannot be represented by traditional flood risk approaches that are based on scenarios. Instead, dynamic models of the coupled human-flood interactions are needed. This paper reviews the phenomena, feedbacks and model types associated with this kind of models. The paper concludes that the models may play an important role in integrated flood risk management by exploring a wider range of possible futures, including unexpected phenomena, than is possible when using scenarios.