Correlation between tropical-like cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea and the space weather

Abstract

The ionosphere is the dominant source of the errors in the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), which causes delays and degradation of the GNSS signal. These errors have an impact on many terrestrial and space applications that rely on GNSS. The key parameter for the study of the ionosphere is the Total Electron Content (TEC). In an effort to eliminate the impact of delayed GNSS signal caused by the ionospheric refraction on the accuracy of GNSS positioning and navigation, the researchers made significant advances and began other ionospheric research. This paper studies the variability of GNSS derived TEC values in the International quiet and disturbed days, but also in periods when three tropical-like cyclones in the Mediterranean developed. However, the term tropical-like cyclone distinguishes tropical cyclones developing outside the tropics (like in the Mediterranean Basin) from those developing inside the tropics. Mediterranean tropical cyclones, known as a Medicane, show no difference to other tropical cyclones and can be developed into a hurricane.

Hence, the variability of GNSS derived TEC values time series were analyzed during periods when three Medicanes happened in the fall of 2014, 2016, 2017. Data from eight GNSS stations of the European Permanent Network (EPN) were used and TEC calculations were performed using the VShell program. The results demonstrated that the TEC variability is reflected in daily variations within one month, for three different years of consideration. When the state of the ionosphere was disturbed by external influences, such as the space weather storms, the results demonstrated extreme changes in the number of electrons in the ionosphere. Variations of the TEC and parameter VTEC*sigma were analyzed in the weeks before and after three subtropical cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea, recorded in November 2014, November 2016 and November 2017. Special attention was given to the time series analysis of the variable VTEC*sigma for the GNSS stations located nearby the area where the Medicane developed and stations in regions away from the storm.

The results demonstrated higher VTEC values derived from GNSS stations in the area of the storm on the storm days, as well as the days before and after. Also, the results for the storm in November 2014 showed higher VTEC values compared to the other two tropical-like cyclones. The recorded events of space weather are in correlation with the days when three analyzed Medicanes developed. Therefore, it is difficult to distinguish whether the TEC variability was caused by the space weather storm or the Medicane.