Projections of carbon mitigation potential for electricity generation technologies in China and Austria and impact on national carbon trading

Abstract

Electricity & Heat production is one of the main GHG emitting human activities worldwide. Internationally employed carbon mitigation models frequently provide mitigation potential and costs on aggregated sector and regional levels. However, analysts interested in the mitigation potential and costs of particular electricity generation technologies in particular countries require more detailed information to understand specific mitigation options. This paper builds a transparent model to assess the mitigation potential and associated costs/benefits of specific electricity supply technologies within the framework of an assumed international carbon trading regime for China and Austria in 2020 and 2030. Findings indicate that in Austria hydro power shows the greatest mitigation potential; however its costs are subject to significant uncertainty and therefore may require a relatively high carbon price to be offset. In China, hydro and nuclear power show the greatest mitigation potential, while already appearing to be competitive or even profitable at a carbon price of around 20EUR2008/tCO2eq.