The predictability of pharmaceutical market growth in Eastern Europe

Abstract

This paper examines the value of prominent market development indicators as predictors of pharmaceutical sales growth based on empirical data of Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary for the period 1990 - 2009. The research includes a review of current literature, scientific papers and databases, and tests assumptions by conducting correlation calculations, simple linear and multiple linear regressions.<br />The conclusion is that there are easy to access ratios that can enhance preliminary market screening in addition to GDP, health care exependiture, population and age structure (e.g. gross capital formation as percentage of GDP) adding market insights without consuming resources.<br />The examination also made clear that the variable pharmaceutical sales growth is embedded in a very complex environment. Not only health care systems are very unique in each economy, but the developing countries within the examined region are so as well. This leads to the conclusion that it makes sense to focus on demographic and macro-economic indicators during preliminary screening, leaving health care specific ratios to be examined during the second phase of market selection - the in-depth analysis.<br />