Caulkins, J., Grass, D., Feichtinger, G., Hartl, R., Kort, P. M., Prskawetz, A., Seidl, A., & Wrzaczek, S. (2020). How long should the COVID-19 lockdown continue? PLoS ONE, 15(12), e0243413. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0243413
E105-04 - Forschungsbereich Variationsrechnung, Dynamische Systeme und Operations Research E105-03 - Forschungsbereich Ökonomie
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Journal:
PLoS ONE
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ISSN:
1932-6203
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Date (published):
2020
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Number of Pages:
19
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Publisher:
PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
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Peer reviewed:
Yes
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Keywords:
Multidisciplinary
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Abstract:
Nations struggled to decide when and how to end COVID-19 inspired lockdowns, with
sharply divergent views between those arguing for a resumption of economic activity and
those arguing for continuing the lockdown in some form. We examine the choice between
continuing or ending a full lockdown within a simple optimal control model that encompasses
both health and economic outcomes, and pays particular attention to when need for care
exceeds hospital capacity. The model shows that very different strategies can perform similarly well and even both be optimal for the same relative valuation on work and life because
of the presence of a so-called Skiba threshold. Qualitatively the alternate strategies correspond to trying essentially to eradicate the virus or merely to flatten the curve so fewer people urgently need healthcare when hospitals are already filled to capacity
en
Research Areas:
Mathematical Methods in Economics: 50% Modelling and Simulation: 50%
