Prettner, K., Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, A., Kuhn, M., Siskova, M., & Kufenko, V. (2022). Emissions and fertility loss in depopulation countries [Poster Presentation]. WITTGENSTEIN CENTRE CONFERENCE 2022, Austria. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12708/152434
In this paper we study the effect of decreasing fertility on carbon emissions in depopulation countries. The depopulation countries are currently experiencing both strong out-migration trends accompanied by significant losses in fertility. Hence, we expect emissions to be affected differently in countries experiencing depopulation compared to non-depopulation countries. There are various channels through which fertility impacts emissions, namely: the population size, the age structure of said population, as well as economic output. To analyze this issue empirically, we constructed a database from 1950 to 2015, in order to estimate the elasticities of emissions with respect to population as well as with respect to income per capita. Studies to date found that the elasticity with respect to population is much larger than the elasticity with respect to income per capita. However, we expect to find that the disparity between the two elasticities expands when restricting the database to the subsample consisting of depopulation countries only. Our contribution to the current literature lies not only in extending the available dataset and inclusion of more variables; but predominantly, in focusing on depopulation countries. For, these countries are of particular interest as they face a situation that is quite unique as it pertains to their economic and demographic structures.
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Research Areas:
Mathematical Methods in Economics: 50% Modeling and Simulation: 50%