Freiberger, M., Hoffmann, R., & Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, A. (2022). Modelling Disaster Risk: Assessing the Impact of Education on Risk Behavior [Conference Presentation]. WITTGENSTEIN CENTRE CONFERENCE 2022 (Wien, AT), Austria.
In the last decades, many parts of the world faced an increase in the number of extreme weather
events and worsening climatic conditions with negative impacts for local populations and their
livelihoods. While various empirical studies have identified key factors of disaster preparedness and
vulnerability, we still lack a conceptual understanding of how these forces interact and how they
impact household decision making. This study develops a dynamic household model, in which
households face stochastic environmental hazards, which can lead to a loss of their wealth. To respond
to the risk, households can either relocate to a safer area or undertake preventive measures to protect
their physical assets. Both actions require material and immaterial resources, which constrain the
household’s decision. Households are assumed to be heterogeneous with respect to key empirically
identified factors for individual disaster risk: education, income, risk awareness, time preference and
their access to preventive measures.
Theoretical insights on the optimal household strategies are derived from the FOCs and the HJB equations. Furthermore a numerical solution for the optimal policy functions is presented calibrated
to data from Thailand and Vietnam. Using Monte-Carlo-Simulations the corresponding stationary
distributions are derived and compared to their empirical counterparts and the impacts of different
household characteristics with a special focus on education are systematically assessed.
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Research Areas:
Mathematical Methods in Economics: 50% Modeling and Simulation: 50%