Automated energy performance certificate based urban building energy modelling approach for predicting heat load profiles of districts

Abstract

Urban building energy modelling (UBEM) for analysing buildings in their spatial and functional context is an arising method. Only a few UBEM procedures use detailed building simulation tools, which are essential for high temporal and spatial resolution. This paper aims at developing a detailed automated physical bottom-up UBEM framework based on archetypes using Energy Performance Certificate data for predicting hourly heat load profiles of residential buildings. Simulation results are compared to and validated with measurements of two district heating networks and values from the TABULA typology. A comparison of the simulated hourly heat load profile for space heating and domestic hot water with measurement data results in a CV(RMSE) of 0.3, NMBE of 0.085, R2 of 0.85 and r of 0.94 for a sample size of 66 residential buildings, solely based on an estimation of the 3 classification criteria of the archetypes (building period, building condition and building type) and an estimation of the conditioned gross floor area for each measured building. Hence, the model can be declared as calibrated according to acceptance criteria in literature.