District heating potential in the EU-27: Evaluating the impacts of heat demand reduction and market share growth

Abstract

This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the gradual reduction in heat demand and the evolving expansion of district heating (DH) grids for assessing the DH potential in EU member states (MS). It introduces new methodological elements for modeling the impact of connection rates below 100% on heat distribution costs in both dense and sparse areas. The projected heat demand in 2050 is derived from a decarbonization scenario published by the EU, which would lead to a reduction in demand from 3128 TWh in 2020 to 1709 TWh by 2050. The proposed approach yields information on economic DH areas, DH potential, and average heat distribution costs. The results confirm the need to expand DH grids to maintain supply levels in view of decreasing heat demand. The proportion of DH potential from the total demand in the EU-27 rises from 15% in 2020 to 31% in 2050. The analysis of DH areas shows that 39% of the DH potential is in areas with heat distribution costs above 35 EUR/MWh, but most MS have average heat distribution costs between 28 and 32 EUR/MWh. The study reveals that over 40% of the EU's heat demand is in regions with high potential for implementing DH.