Wolf, M., & Zessner-Spitzenberg, L. (2024, March 21). Fear of Hiking? Rising Interest Rates in Times of High Public Debt [Presentation]. Macro Research Seminar, CERGE-EI, Prag, Czechia. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12708/202629
sovereign dept; sovereign default; low interest rates
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slow moving dept; interest rate normalization
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Abstract:
We build a sovereign default model to understand the implications of rising safe interest rates for countries with high public debt. When debt levels are below a critical threshold, countries respond to higher interest rates by reducing their debt due to a dominant substitution effect. For high debt levels, in contrast, the same rate rise triggers even more debt - and possibly a slow-moving debt spiral - due to a dominant income effect. The seeds for a debt spiral are laid by a long phase of low interest rates: they imply that debt levels rise over time, making a future interest rate normalization more difficult. A successful interest rate normalization involves a credible path of rising interest rates, the speed of which must be intermediary: a too fast normalization leads to debt spirals, but a too slow one undermines incentives by the government to repay.
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Research Areas:
Mathematical Methods in Economics: 20% Modeling and Simulation: 80%