FedCCL: Federated Clustered Continual Learning Framework for Privacy-focused Energy Forecasting

Abstract

Privacy-preserving distributed model training is crucial for modern machine learning applications, yet existing Federated Learning approaches struggle with heterogeneous data distributions and varying computational capabilities. Traditional solutions either treat all participants uniformly or require costly dynamic clustering during training, leading to reduced efficiency and delayed model specialization. We present FedCCL (Federated Clustered Continual Learning), a framework specifically designed for environments with static organizational characteristics but dynamic client availability. By combining static pretraining clustering with an adapted asynchronous FedAvg algorithm, Fed-CCL enables new clients to immediately profit from specialized models without prior exposure to their data distribution, while maintaining reduced coordination overhead and resilience to client disconnections. Our approach implements an asynchronous Federated Learning protocol with a three-tier model topology - global, cluster-specific, and local models - that efficiently manages knowledge sharing across heterogeneous participants. Evaluation using photovoltaic installations across central Europe demonstrates that FedCCL's location-based clustering achieves an energy prediction error of 3.93% (±0.21%), while maintaining data privacy and showing that the framework maintains stability for population-independent deployments, with 0.14 percentage point degradation in performance for new installations. The results demonstrate that FedCCL offers an effective framework for privacy-preserving distributed learning, maintaining high accuracy and adaptability even with dynamic participant populations.